Bunyodkor vs Surkhon Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Sep 03, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Bunyodkor vs Surkhon
Model pick: Bunyodkor (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.29 – 0.98
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bunyodkor | Surkhon |
|---|
| League position | #15 (19 pts) | #12 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.7 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 22% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 3.0 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
*Bunyodkor shown at home, Surkhon shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bunyodkor — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Surkhon — last 5
WLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bunyodkor (home) | Surkhon (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-7 in 9 (1.0 / 1.7 goals per game) | 3-2-4 in 9 (0.9 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 40% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.29 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Bunyodkor or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Surkhon or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Bunyodkor clean sheet | 38% |
| Surkhon clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bunyodkor is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Bunyodkor are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Bunyodkor vs Surkhon — FAQ
Who will win Bunyodkor vs Surkhon?
Our statistical model makes Bunyodkor the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Bunyodkor 42%, draw 29%, Surkhon 29%.
Will both teams score in Bunyodkor vs Surkhon?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Bunyodkor vs Surkhon?
Expected goals are 1.29 for Bunyodkor and 0.98 for Surkhon — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bunyodkor vs Surkhon?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Bunyodkor or draw is 72%.