Burghausen vs Schwaben Augsburg Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Burghausen vs Schwaben Augsburg
Model pick: Burghausen (67%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.28 – 0.06
Total goals: 1.3
Over 2.5: 28%
Both teams score: 20%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Burghausen | Schwaben Augsburg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.0 | 0.67 / 1.33 |
*Burghausen shown at home, Schwaben Augsburg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Burghausen — last 5
LDWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Schwaben Augsburg — last 5
DLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Burghausen (home) | Schwaben Augsburg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 0% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.36
Home wins: 37%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 65%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.28 vs 0.06):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (34%) |
| Double chance — Burghausen or draw (1X) | 98% |
| Double chance — Schwaben Augsburg or draw (X2) | 30% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 5% / 95% |
| Burghausen clean sheet | 94% |
| Schwaben Augsburg clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Burghausen is the model's most likely outcome at
67%. Burghausen are backed at home, where they average 2.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (72% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Burghausen vs Schwaben Augsburg — FAQ
Who will win Burghausen vs Schwaben Augsburg?
Our statistical model makes Burghausen the most likely result at 67%. Full probabilities: Burghausen 67%, draw 31%, Schwaben Augsburg 3%.
Will both teams score in Burghausen vs Schwaben Augsburg?
The model gives a 20% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Burghausen vs Schwaben Augsburg?
Expected goals are 1.28 for Burghausen and 0.06 for Schwaben Augsburg — about 1.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Burghausen vs Schwaben Augsburg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (34%). Double chance for Burghausen or draw is 98%.