Burgos Promesas vs Villaralbo Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Burgos Promesas vs Villaralbo
Model pick: Burgos Promesas (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.18 – 0.65
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Burgos Promesas | Villaralbo |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
*Burgos Promesas shown at home, Villaralbo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Burgos Promesas — last 5
DDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Villaralbo — last 5
WDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Burgos Promesas (home) | Villaralbo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 35% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.18 vs 0.65):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Burgos Promesas or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Villaralbo or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 11% / 89% |
| Burgos Promesas clean sheet | 52% |
| Villaralbo clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Burgos Promesas is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Burgos Promesas are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Burgos Promesas vs Villaralbo — FAQ
Who will win Burgos Promesas vs Villaralbo?
Our statistical model makes Burgos Promesas the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Burgos Promesas 46%, draw 32%, Villaralbo 22%.
Will both teams score in Burgos Promesas vs Villaralbo?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Burgos Promesas vs Villaralbo?
Expected goals are 1.18 for Burgos Promesas and 0.65 for Villaralbo — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Burgos Promesas vs Villaralbo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Burgos Promesas or draw is 80%.