Burnley vs Bristol City Prediction & Preview
Championship (England) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHAMPIONSHIP (ENGLAND)
Burnley vs Bristol City
Model pick: Burnley (55%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.79 – 0.56
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Burnley | Bristol City |
|---|
| League position | #19 (22 pts) | #12 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.5 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 11% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.2 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*Burnley shown at home, Bristol City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Burnley — last 5
WDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Bristol City — last 5
DLLDW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Burnley (home) | Bristol City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-7-10 in 19 (0.9 / 1.5 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 50% |
Championship (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Championship (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.79 vs 0.56):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Burnley or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Bristol City or draw (X2) | 33% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Burnley clean sheet | 57% |
| Bristol City clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Burnley is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Burnley are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Burnley vs Bristol City — FAQ
Who will win Burnley vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model makes Burnley the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Burnley 55%, draw 25%, Bristol City 20%.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Bristol City?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Burnley vs Bristol City?
Expected goals are 1.79 for Burnley and 0.56 for Bristol City — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Burnley vs Bristol City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Burnley or draw is 89%.