Burnley vs Middlesbrough Prediction & Preview
Championship (England) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHAMPIONSHIP (ENGLAND)
Burnley vs Middlesbrough
Model pick: Burnley (58%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.55 – 0.55
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Burnley | Middlesbrough |
|---|
| League position | #19 (22 pts) | #11 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.5 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 11% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 2.0 / 1.4 |
*Burnley shown at home, Middlesbrough shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Burnley — last 5
LWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Middlesbrough — last 5
DWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Burnley (home) | Middlesbrough (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-7-10 in 19 (0.9 / 1.5 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 53% |
Championship (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Championship (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.55 vs 0.55):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Burnley or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Middlesbrough or draw (X2) | 38% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Burnley clean sheet | 58% |
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Burnley is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Burnley are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Burnley vs Middlesbrough — FAQ
Who will win Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model makes Burnley the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Burnley 58%, draw 27%, Middlesbrough 15%.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Expected goals are 1.55 for Burnley and 0.55 for Middlesbrough — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Burnley or draw is 87%.