Bury Town vs Leamington Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Bury Town vs Leamington
Model pick: Bury Town (72%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.78 – 0.84
Total goals: 3.6
Over 2.5: 62%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bury Town | Leamington |
|---|
| League position | #2 (9 pts) | #18 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.0 | 2.0 / 4.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 |
*Bury Town shown at home, Leamington shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bury Town — last 5
WDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Leamington — last 5
LWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 10% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bury Town (home) | Leamington (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (2.0 / 4.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.78 vs 0.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Bury Town or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — Leamington or draw (X2) | 22% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 86% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 49% / 51% |
| Bury Town clean sheet | 43% |
| Leamington clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bury Town is the model's most likely outcome at
72%. Bury Town are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.6, this shapes as an open game (62% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Bury Town vs Leamington — FAQ
Who will win Bury Town vs Leamington?
Our statistical model makes Bury Town the most likely result at 72%. Full probabilities: Bury Town 72%, draw 16%, Leamington 11%.
Will both teams score in Bury Town vs Leamington?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Bury Town vs Leamington?
Expected goals are 2.78 for Bury Town and 0.84 for Leamington — about 3.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bury Town vs Leamington?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (10%). Double chance for Bury Town or draw is 91%.