Bury vs Ilkeston Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Bury vs Ilkeston
Model pick: Bury (55%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.48 – 0.58
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bury | Ilkeston |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
*Bury shown at home, Ilkeston shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bury — last 5
DWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Ilkeston — last 5
WWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bury (home) | Ilkeston (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 67% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.88
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.48 vs 0.58):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Bury or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Ilkeston or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Bury clean sheet | 56% |
| Ilkeston clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bury is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Bury are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Bury vs Ilkeston — FAQ
Who will win Bury vs Ilkeston?
Our statistical model makes Bury the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Bury 55%, draw 28%, Ilkeston 17%.
Will both teams score in Bury vs Ilkeston?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Bury vs Ilkeston?
Expected goals are 1.48 for Bury and 0.58 for Ilkeston — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bury vs Ilkeston?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Bury or draw is 86%.