Bury vs Lancaster Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 25, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Bury vs Lancaster
Model pick: Bury (92%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 6.79 – 1.55
Total goals: 8.3
Over 2.5: 78%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bury | Lancaster |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
*Bury shown at home, Lancaster shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bury — last 5
WDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Lancaster — last 5
DLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bury (home) | Lancaster (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 100% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.74
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (6.79 vs 1.55):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 6-1 (7%) |
| Double chance — Bury or draw (1X) | 98% |
| Double chance — Lancaster or draw (X2) | 6% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 97% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 96% / 4% |
| Bury clean sheet | 21% |
| Lancaster clean sheet | 0% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bury is the model's most likely outcome at
92%. Bury are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 8.3, this shapes as an open game (78% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Bury vs Lancaster — FAQ
Who will win Bury vs Lancaster?
Our statistical model makes Bury the most likely result at 92%. Full probabilities: Bury 92%, draw 4%, Lancaster 3%.
Will both teams score in Bury vs Lancaster?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Bury vs Lancaster?
Expected goals are 6.79 for Bury and 1.55 for Lancaster — about 8.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bury vs Lancaster?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 6-1 (7%). Double chance for Bury or draw is 98%.