Busan Transportation vs Changwon City Prediction & Preview
K League 3 (South Korea) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 3 (SOUTH KOREA)
Busan Transportation vs Changwon City
Model pick: Changwon City (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.17 – 1.3
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Busan Transportation | Changwon City |
|---|
| League position | #3 (33 pts) | #6 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
*Busan Transportation shown at home, Changwon City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Busan Transportation — last 5
WWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Changwon City — last 5
WWDLD
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Busan Transportation (home) | Changwon City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-3 in 11 (1.5 / 0.7 goals per game) | 3-2-3 in 8 (0.9 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 44% |
K League 3 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.41
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these K League 3 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.17 vs 1.3):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Busan Transportation or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Changwon City or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Busan Transportation clean sheet | 27% |
| Changwon City clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Changwon City is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Changwon City edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Busan Transportation vs Changwon City — FAQ
Who will win Busan Transportation vs Changwon City?
Our statistical model makes Changwon City the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Busan Transportation 33%, draw 28%, Changwon City 39%.
Will both teams score in Busan Transportation vs Changwon City?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Busan Transportation vs Changwon City?
Expected goals are 1.17 for Busan Transportation and 1.3 for Changwon City — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Busan Transportation vs Changwon City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Busan Transportation or draw is 60%.