Busko-Zdroj vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Busko-Zdroj vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Model pick: Busko-Zdroj (83%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.29 – 0.11
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 27%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Busko-Zdroj | Siarka Tarnobrzeg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.0 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
*Busko-Zdroj shown at home, Siarka Tarnobrzeg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Busko-Zdroj — last 5
LLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 80% of home games go over 2.5.
Siarka Tarnobrzeg — last 5
DLWDL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Busko-Zdroj (home) | Siarka Tarnobrzeg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.29 vs 0.11):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (24%) |
| Double chance — Busko-Zdroj or draw (1X) | 99% |
| Double chance — Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw (X2) | 13% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Busko-Zdroj clean sheet | 90% |
| Siarka Tarnobrzeg clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Busko-Zdroj is the model's most likely outcome at
83%. Busko-Zdroj are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Busko-Zdroj vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — FAQ
Who will win Busko-Zdroj vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
Our statistical model makes Busko-Zdroj the most likely result at 83%. Full probabilities: Busko-Zdroj 83%, draw 15%, Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2%.
Will both teams score in Busko-Zdroj vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
The model gives a 27% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Busko-Zdroj vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
Expected goals are 2.29 for Busko-Zdroj and 0.11 for Siarka Tarnobrzeg — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Busko-Zdroj vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (24%). Double chance for Busko-Zdroj or draw is 99%.