Cúcuta Deportivo vs Alianza Petrolera Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 01:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Cúcuta Deportivo vs Alianza Petrolera
Model pick: Alianza Petrolera (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.5
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cúcuta Deportivo | Alianza Petrolera |
|---|
| League position | #19 (16 pts) | #17 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 2.4 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Cúcuta Deportivo shown at home, Alianza Petrolera shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cúcuta Deportivo — last 5
LLDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Alianza Petrolera — last 5
WLDLL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cúcuta Deportivo (home) | Alianza Petrolera (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 39% |
| Top scorer | Jaime Peralta (5) | Jesus Munoz (3) |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.26 vs 1.5):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Cúcuta Deportivo or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Alianza Petrolera or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Cúcuta Deportivo clean sheet | 22% |
| Alianza Petrolera clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alianza Petrolera is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Alianza Petrolera edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cúcuta Deportivo vs Alianza Petrolera — FAQ
Who will win Cúcuta Deportivo vs Alianza Petrolera?
Our statistical model makes Alianza Petrolera the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Cúcuta Deportivo 32%, draw 26%, Alianza Petrolera 42%.
Will both teams score in Cúcuta Deportivo vs Alianza Petrolera?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Cúcuta Deportivo vs Alianza Petrolera?
Expected goals are 1.26 for Cúcuta Deportivo and 1.5 for Alianza Petrolera — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cúcuta Deportivo vs Alianza Petrolera?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Cúcuta Deportivo or draw is 57%.