CA La Paz vs Durango Prediction & Preview
Primera A (Mexico) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 03:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA A (MEXICO)
CA La Paz vs Durango
Model pick: CA La Paz (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.88 – 1.35
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CA La Paz | Durango |
|---|
| League position | #14 (0 pts) | #1 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.2 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*CA La Paz shown at home, Durango shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CA La Paz — last 5
DLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
Durango — last 5
WDLLW
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CA La Paz (home) | Durango (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% |
Primera A (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.53
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera A (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.88 vs 1.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — CA La Paz or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Durango or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| CA La Paz clean sheet | 26% |
| Durango clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CA La Paz is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. CA La Paz are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CA La Paz vs Durango — FAQ
Who will win CA La Paz vs Durango?
Our statistical model makes CA La Paz the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: CA La Paz 47%, draw 24%, Durango 29%.
Will both teams score in CA La Paz vs Durango?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in CA La Paz vs Durango?
Expected goals are 1.88 for CA La Paz and 1.35 for Durango — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CA La Paz vs Durango?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for CA La Paz or draw is 72%.