Caerau Ely vs Treowen Prediction & Preview
Feeder Leagues (Wales) · Aug 31, 2026 · kickoff 13:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FEEDER LEAGUES (WALES)
Caerau Ely vs Treowen
Model pick: Treowen (80%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.04 – 5.43
Total goals: 7.5
Over 2.5: 85%
Both teams score: 71%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Caerau Ely | Treowen |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 3.2 | 2.75 / 1.5 |
*Caerau Ely shown at home, Treowen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Caerau Ely — last 5
DLDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Treowen — last 5
LWWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Caerau Ely (home) | Treowen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 100% |
Feeder Leagues (Wales) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.43
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 15%
Away wins: 40%
Over 2.5: 72%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Feeder Leagues (Wales) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.04 vs 5.43):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-5 (5%) |
| Double chance — Caerau Ely or draw (1X) | 16% |
| Double chance — Treowen or draw (X2) | 92% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 92% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 93% / 7% |
| Caerau Ely clean sheet | 0% |
| Treowen clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Treowen is the model's most likely outcome at
80%. Despite playing away, Treowen edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 7.5, this shapes as an open game (85% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Caerau Ely vs Treowen — FAQ
Who will win Caerau Ely vs Treowen?
Our statistical model makes Treowen the most likely result at 80%. Full probabilities: Caerau Ely 10%, draw 10%, Treowen 80%.
Will both teams score in Caerau Ely vs Treowen?
The model gives a 71% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Caerau Ely vs Treowen?
Expected goals are 2.04 for Caerau Ely and 5.43 for Treowen — about 7.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Caerau Ely vs Treowen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-5 (5%). Double chance for Caerau Ely or draw is 16%.