Cagliari vs Lecce Prediction & Preview
SerieA · Sep 07, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIEA
Cagliari vs Lecce
Model pick: Cagliari (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.3 – 0.97
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cagliari | Lecce |
|---|
| League position | #12 (3 pts) | #13 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
*Cagliari shown at home, Lecce shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cagliari — last 5
DWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Lecce — last 5
WWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cagliari (home) | Lecce (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 44% |
SerieA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.74
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these SerieA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.3 vs 0.97):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Cagliari or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Lecce or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Cagliari clean sheet | 38% |
| Lecce clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cagliari is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Cagliari are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Cagliari vs Lecce — FAQ
Who will win Cagliari vs Lecce?
Our statistical model makes Cagliari the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Cagliari 46%, draw 29%, Lecce 25%.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Lecce?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cagliari vs Lecce?
Expected goals are 1.3 for Cagliari and 0.97 for Lecce — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cagliari vs Lecce?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Cagliari or draw is 72%.