Cala Pozuelo vs Las Rozas Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Cala Pozuelo vs Las Rozas
Model pick: Cala Pozuelo (37%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.39 – 1.39
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cala Pozuelo | Las Rozas |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 2.4 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*Cala Pozuelo shown at home, Las Rozas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cala Pozuelo — last 5
LDLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 38% of home games go over 2.5.
Las Rozas — last 5
WWDLD
On the road: clean sheet 37% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cala Pozuelo (home) | Las Rozas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 37% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 43% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.39 vs 1.39):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Cala Pozuelo or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Las Rozas or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Cala Pozuelo clean sheet | 25% |
| Las Rozas clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cala Pozuelo is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Cala Pozuelo are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cala Pozuelo vs Las Rozas — FAQ
Who will win Cala Pozuelo vs Las Rozas?
Our statistical model makes Cala Pozuelo the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Cala Pozuelo 37%, draw 26%, Las Rozas 37%.
Will both teams score in Cala Pozuelo vs Las Rozas?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Cala Pozuelo vs Las Rozas?
Expected goals are 1.39 for Cala Pozuelo and 1.39 for Las Rozas — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cala Pozuelo vs Las Rozas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Cala Pozuelo or draw is 63%.