Calasancio vs Alfaro Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Calasancio vs Alfaro
Model pick: Alfaro (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.27 – 1.41
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Calasancio | Alfaro |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.6 | 1.6 / 2.2 |
*Calasancio shown at home, Alfaro shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Calasancio — last 5
LLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 10% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Alfaro — last 5
WWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 37% of the time; 59% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Calasancio (home) | Alfaro (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 10% | 37% |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 59% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.27 vs 1.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Calasancio or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Alfaro or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Calasancio clean sheet | 24% |
| Alfaro clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alfaro is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Alfaro edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Calasancio vs Alfaro — FAQ
Who will win Calasancio vs Alfaro?
Our statistical model makes Alfaro the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Calasancio 34%, draw 27%, Alfaro 39%.
Will both teams score in Calasancio vs Alfaro?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Calasancio vs Alfaro?
Expected goals are 1.27 for Calasancio and 1.41 for Alfaro — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Calasancio vs Alfaro?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Calasancio or draw is 60%.