Calcio Padova vs Hellas Verona Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Italy) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (ITALY)
Calcio Padova vs Hellas Verona
Model pick: Calcio Padova (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.03
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Calcio Padova | Hellas Verona |
|---|
| League position | #6 (3 pts) | #19 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.0 |
*Calcio Padova shown at home, Hellas Verona shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Calcio Padova — last 5
LWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 45% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Hellas Verona — last 5
WWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Calcio Padova (home) | Hellas Verona (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 45% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 45% |
Serie B (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.45
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 32%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Serie B (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.5 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Calcio Padova or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Hellas Verona or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Calcio Padova clean sheet | 36% |
| Hellas Verona clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Calcio Padova is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Calcio Padova are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Calcio Padova vs Hellas Verona — FAQ
Who will win Calcio Padova vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model makes Calcio Padova the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Calcio Padova 46%, draw 27%, Hellas Verona 27%.
Will both teams score in Calcio Padova vs Hellas Verona?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Calcio Padova vs Hellas Verona?
Expected goals are 1.5 for Calcio Padova and 1.03 for Hellas Verona — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Calcio Padova vs Hellas Verona?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Calcio Padova or draw is 74%.