Cambuur vs Excelsior Prediction & Preview
Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EREDIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Cambuur vs Excelsior
Model pick: Excelsior (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.44 – 1.53
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cambuur | Excelsior |
|---|
| League position | #1 (0 pts) | #15 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 3.6 / 1.4 |
*Cambuur shown at home, Excelsior shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cambuur — last 5
WLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 65% of home games go over 2.5.
Excelsior — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 69% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cambuur (home) | Excelsior (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 69% |
Eredivisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.09
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eredivisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.44 vs 1.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Cambuur or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Excelsior or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Cambuur clean sheet | 22% |
| Excelsior clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Excelsior is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Excelsior edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cambuur vs Excelsior — FAQ
Who will win Cambuur vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model makes Excelsior the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Cambuur 35%, draw 26%, Excelsior 39%.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Excelsior?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Cambuur vs Excelsior?
Expected goals are 1.44 for Cambuur and 1.53 for Excelsior — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cambuur vs Excelsior?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Cambuur or draw is 60%.