Caracas vs Carabobo Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Venezuela) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (VENEZUELA)
Caracas vs Carabobo
Model pick: Carabobo (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.9 – 0.94
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Caracas | Carabobo |
|---|
| League position | #2 (9 pts) | #3 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.8 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
*Caracas shown at home, Carabobo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Caracas — last 5
DLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Carabobo — last 5
LLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 37% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Caracas (home) | Carabobo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-1 in 3 (1.0 / 1.3 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (0.7 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 37% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 40% |
| Top scorer | – | Edson Castillo (2) |
Primera Division (Venezuela) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Venezuela) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.9 vs 0.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Caracas or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Carabobo or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Caracas clean sheet | 39% |
| Carabobo clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Carabobo is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Carabobo edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Caracas vs Carabobo — FAQ
Who will win Caracas vs Carabobo?
Our statistical model makes Carabobo the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Caracas 28%, draw 30%, Carabobo 42%.
Will both teams score in Caracas vs Carabobo?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Caracas vs Carabobo?
Expected goals are 0.9 for Caracas and 0.94 for Carabobo — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Caracas vs Carabobo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (16%). Double chance for Caracas or draw is 65%.