Caracas vs Deportivo La Guaira Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Venezuela) · Aug 10, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (VENEZUELA)
Caracas vs Deportivo La Guaira
Model pick: Caracas (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.21 – 1.14
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Caracas | Deportivo La Guaira |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 2.4 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Caracas shown at home, Deportivo La Guaira shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Caracas — last 5
LLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo La Guaira — last 5
WLDWL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Caracas (home) | Deportivo La Guaira (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 50% |
Primera Division (Venezuela) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Venezuela) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.21 vs 1.14):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Caracas or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Deportivo La Guaira or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Caracas clean sheet | 32% |
| Deportivo La Guaira clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Caracas is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Caracas are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Caracas vs Deportivo La Guaira — FAQ
Who will win Caracas vs Deportivo La Guaira?
Our statistical model makes Caracas the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Caracas 37%, draw 29%, Deportivo La Guaira 34%.
Will both teams score in Caracas vs Deportivo La Guaira?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Caracas vs Deportivo La Guaira?
Expected goals are 1.21 for Caracas and 1.14 for Deportivo La Guaira — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Caracas vs Deportivo La Guaira?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Caracas or draw is 66%.