Carina Gubin vs Jelenia Gora Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Carina Gubin vs Jelenia Gora
Model pick: Jelenia Gora (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.04 – 0.7
Total goals: 0.7
Over 2.5: 15%
Both teams score: 15%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Carina Gubin | Jelenia Gora |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*Carina Gubin shown at home, Jelenia Gora shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Carina Gubin — last 5
DWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Jelenia Gora — last 5
LWLDW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Carina Gubin (home) | Jelenia Gora (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.04 vs 0.7):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (48%) |
| Double chance — Carina Gubin or draw (1X) | 51% |
| Double chance — Jelenia Gora or draw (X2) | 98% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 51% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 1% / 99% |
| Carina Gubin clean sheet | 50% |
| Jelenia Gora clean sheet | 96% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Jelenia Gora is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Despite playing away, Jelenia Gora edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (85% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Carina Gubin vs Jelenia Gora — FAQ
Who will win Carina Gubin vs Jelenia Gora?
Our statistical model makes Jelenia Gora the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Carina Gubin 3%, draw 48%, Jelenia Gora 48%.
Will both teams score in Carina Gubin vs Jelenia Gora?
The model gives a 15% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Carina Gubin vs Jelenia Gora?
Expected goals are 0.04 for Carina Gubin and 0.7 for Jelenia Gora — about 0.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Carina Gubin vs Jelenia Gora?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (48%). Double chance for Carina Gubin or draw is 51%.