Carina Gubin vs Zagłębie Sosnowiec Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Carina Gubin vs Zagłębie Sosnowiec
Model pick: Zagłębie Sosnowiec (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.16 – 0.78
Total goals: 0.9
Over 2.5: 19%
Both teams score: 26%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Carina Gubin | Zagłębie Sosnowiec |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Carina Gubin shown at home, Zagłębie Sosnowiec shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Carina Gubin — last 5
WDWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Zagłębie Sosnowiec — last 5
WDDLW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Carina Gubin (home) | Zagłębie Sosnowiec (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.16 vs 0.78):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (39%) |
| Double chance — Carina Gubin or draw (1X) | 51% |
| Double chance — Zagłębie Sosnowiec or draw (X2) | 93% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 56% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 2% / 98% |
| Carina Gubin clean sheet | 46% |
| Zagłębie Sosnowiec clean sheet | 85% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Zagłębie Sosnowiec is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Despite playing away, Zagłębie Sosnowiec edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (81% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Carina Gubin vs Zagłębie Sosnowiec — FAQ
Who will win Carina Gubin vs Zagłębie Sosnowiec?
Our statistical model makes Zagłębie Sosnowiec the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Carina Gubin 9%, draw 43%, Zagłębie Sosnowiec 47%.
Will both teams score in Carina Gubin vs Zagłębie Sosnowiec?
The model gives a 26% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Carina Gubin vs Zagłębie Sosnowiec?
Expected goals are 0.16 for Carina Gubin and 0.78 for Zagłębie Sosnowiec — about 0.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Carina Gubin vs Zagłębie Sosnowiec?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (39%). Double chance for Carina Gubin or draw is 51%.