Carrarese vs Empoli Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Italy) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (ITALY)
Carrarese vs Empoli
Model pick: Carrarese (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.37 – 1.18
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Carrarese | Empoli |
|---|
| League position | #14 (1 pts) | #11 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*Carrarese shown at home, Empoli shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Carrarese — last 5
LWLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Empoli — last 5
DDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Carrarese (home) | Empoli (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% |
Serie B (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.45
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 32%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Serie B (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.37 vs 1.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Carrarese or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Empoli or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Carrarese clean sheet | 31% |
| Empoli clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Carrarese is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Carrarese are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Carrarese vs Empoli — FAQ
Who will win Carrarese vs Empoli?
Our statistical model makes Carrarese the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Carrarese 40%, draw 28%, Empoli 32%.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Empoli?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Carrarese vs Empoli?
Expected goals are 1.37 for Carrarese and 1.18 for Empoli — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Carrarese vs Empoli?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Carrarese or draw is 68%.