Carrarese vs Mantova Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Italy) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (ITALY)
Carrarese vs Mantova
Model pick: Carrarese (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.52 – 1.12
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Carrarese | Mantova |
|---|
| League position | #13 (0 pts) | #6 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.2 / 1.8 |
*Carrarese shown at home, Mantova shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Carrarese — last 5
DLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Mantova — last 5
LWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Carrarese (home) | Mantova (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 45% |
Serie B (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.45
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 32%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Serie B (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.52 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Carrarese or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Mantova or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Carrarese clean sheet | 33% |
| Mantova clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Carrarese is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Carrarese are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Carrarese vs Mantova — FAQ
Who will win Carrarese vs Mantova?
Our statistical model makes Carrarese the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Carrarese 42%, draw 28%, Mantova 30%.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Mantova?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Carrarese vs Mantova?
Expected goals are 1.52 for Carrarese and 1.12 for Mantova — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Carrarese vs Mantova?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Carrarese or draw is 72%.