Cartaginés vs Herediano Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Costa Rica) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COSTA RICA)
Cartaginés vs Herediano
Model pick: Cartaginés (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.19 – 1.12
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cartaginés | Herediano |
|---|
| League position | #4 (9 pts) | #8 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 1.2 | 0.4 / 1.6 |
*Cartaginés shown at home, Herediano shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cartaginés — last 5
WDLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Herediano — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cartaginés (home) | Herediano (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.5 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 39% |
Primera Division (Costa Rica) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Primera Division (Costa Rica) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.19 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Cartaginés or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Herediano or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Cartaginés clean sheet | 33% |
| Herediano clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cartaginés is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Cartaginés are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cartaginés vs Herediano — FAQ
Who will win Cartaginés vs Herediano?
Our statistical model makes Cartaginés the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Cartaginés 42%, draw 30%, Herediano 28%.
Will both teams score in Cartaginés vs Herediano?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cartaginés vs Herediano?
Expected goals are 1.19 for Cartaginés and 1.12 for Herediano — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cartaginés vs Herediano?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Cartaginés or draw is 66%.