Casa Pia vs Benfica Prediction & Preview
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 19:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PORTUGUESE LIGA (PORTUGAL)
Casa Pia vs Benfica
Model pick: Benfica (67%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.68 – 2.19
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Casa Pia | Benfica |
|---|
| League position | #17 (0 pts) | #24 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.0 | 3.8 / 1.2 |
*Casa Pia shown at home, Benfica shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Casa Pia — last 5
WWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Benfica — last 5
LWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 46% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Casa Pia (home) | Benfica (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 1-0-3 in 4 (0.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 46% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 52% |
| Top scorer | – | Andreas Schjelderup (3) |
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Portuguese Liga (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.68 vs 2.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (14%) |
| Double chance — Casa Pia or draw (1X) | 28% |
| Double chance — Benfica or draw (X2) | 90% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Casa Pia clean sheet | 11% |
| Benfica clean sheet | 51% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Benfica is the model's most likely outcome at
67%. Despite playing away, Benfica edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Casa Pia vs Benfica — FAQ
Who will win Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our statistical model makes Benfica the most likely result at 67%. Full probabilities: Casa Pia 13%, draw 20%, Benfica 67%.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Expected goals are 0.68 for Casa Pia and 2.19 for Benfica — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (14%). Double chance for Casa Pia or draw is 28%.