Caspe vs Atlético Monzón Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Caspe vs Atlético Monzón
Model pick: Atlético Monzón (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.93 – 1.07
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Caspe | Atlético Monzón |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
*Caspe shown at home, Atlético Monzón shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Caspe — last 5
LLWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 35% of home games go over 2.5.
Atlético Monzón — last 5
DWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Caspe (home) | Atlético Monzón (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 49% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.93 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Caspe or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Atlético Monzón or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Caspe clean sheet | 34% |
| Atlético Monzón clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Atlético Monzón is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Atlético Monzón edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Caspe vs Atlético Monzón — FAQ
Who will win Caspe vs Atlético Monzón?
Our statistical model makes Atlético Monzón the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Caspe 31%, draw 31%, Atlético Monzón 38%.
Will both teams score in Caspe vs Atlético Monzón?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Caspe vs Atlético Monzón?
Expected goals are 0.93 for Caspe and 1.07 for Atlético Monzón — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Caspe vs Atlético Monzón?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Caspe or draw is 62%.