Cayón vs Vimenor Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Cayón vs Vimenor
Model pick: Cayón (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.64 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cayón | Vimenor |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
*Cayón shown at home, Vimenor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cayón — last 5
LWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Vimenor — last 5
LDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cayón (home) | Vimenor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 48% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.64 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Cayón or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Vimenor or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Cayón clean sheet | 32% |
| Vimenor clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cayón is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Cayón are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cayón vs Vimenor — FAQ
Who will win Cayón vs Vimenor?
Our statistical model makes Cayón the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Cayón 46%, draw 26%, Vimenor 28%.
Will both teams score in Cayón vs Vimenor?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Cayón vs Vimenor?
Expected goals are 1.64 for Cayón and 1.15 for Vimenor — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cayón vs Vimenor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Cayón or draw is 73%.