Ceará vs Cuiabá Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Ceará vs Cuiabá
Model pick: Ceará (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.52 – 0.89
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ceará | Cuiabá |
|---|
| League position | #15 (25 pts) | #16 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.0 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 36% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
*Ceará shown at home, Cuiabá shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ceará — last 5
DDLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 36% of home games go over 2.5.
Cuiabá — last 5
DLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 32% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ceará (home) | Cuiabá (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-4 in 11 (1.1 / 1.0 goals per game) | 2-5-3 in 10 (0.7 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 32% |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.52 vs 0.89):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Ceará or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Cuiabá or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Ceará clean sheet | 41% |
| Cuiabá clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ceará is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Ceará are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ceará vs Cuiabá — FAQ
Who will win Ceará vs Cuiabá?
Our statistical model makes Ceará the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Ceará 45%, draw 30%, Cuiabá 25%.
Will both teams score in Ceará vs Cuiabá?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ceará vs Cuiabá?
Expected goals are 1.52 for Ceará and 0.89 for Cuiabá — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ceará vs Cuiabá?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Ceará or draw is 78%.