Ceará vs Londrina Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 21:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Ceará vs Londrina
Model pick: Ceará (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.71 – 0.88
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ceará | Londrina |
|---|
| League position | #16 (25 pts) | #18 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.6 | 0.6 / 1.8 |
*Ceará shown at home, Londrina shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ceará — last 5
DLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Londrina — last 5
DLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ceará (home) | Londrina (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-5 in 12 (1.1 / 1.2 goals per game) | 2-2-8 in 12 (1.1 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 41% |
| Top scorer | – | Santos Bruno (10) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.71 vs 0.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Ceará or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Londrina or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Ceará clean sheet | 41% |
| Londrina clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ceará is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Ceará are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ceará vs Londrina — FAQ
Who will win Ceará vs Londrina?
Our statistical model makes Ceará the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Ceará 54%, draw 25%, Londrina 21%.
Will both teams score in Ceará vs Londrina?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ceará vs Londrina?
Expected goals are 1.71 for Ceará and 0.88 for Londrina — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ceará vs Londrina?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Ceará or draw is 81%.