Ceará vs Ponte Preta Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Ceará vs Ponte Preta
Model pick: Ceará (65%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.74 – 0.79
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ceará | Ponte Preta |
|---|
| League position | #16 (22 pts) | #20 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 30% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
*Ceará shown at home, Ponte Preta shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ceará — last 5
LDDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Ponte Preta — last 5
LLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ceará (home) | Ponte Preta (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-4 in 10 (1.0 / 1.1 goals per game) | 1-0-8 in 9 (0.8 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 38% |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.74 vs 0.79):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Ceará or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Ponte Preta or draw (X2) | 40% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Ceará clean sheet | 45% |
| Ponte Preta clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ceará is the model's most likely outcome at
65%. Ceará are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ceará vs Ponte Preta — FAQ
Who will win Ceará vs Ponte Preta?
Our statistical model makes Ceará the most likely result at 65%. Full probabilities: Ceará 65%, draw 22%, Ponte Preta 13%.
Will both teams score in Ceará vs Ponte Preta?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ceará vs Ponte Preta?
Expected goals are 1.74 for Ceará and 0.79 for Ponte Preta — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ceará vs Ponte Preta?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Ceará or draw is 83%.