Ceará vs Sport Recife Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Ceará vs Sport Recife
Model pick: Ceará (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.37 – 1.25
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ceará | Sport Recife |
|---|
| League position | #17 (28 pts) | #7 (38 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1.0 |
*Ceará shown at home, Sport Recife shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ceará — last 5
WWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Sport Recife — last 5
WWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ceará (home) | Sport Recife (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-5 in 13 (1.2 / 1.2 goals per game) | 4-4-4 in 12 (0.9 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 44% |
| Top scorer | – | Perotti Pedro (9) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.37 vs 1.25):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Ceará or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Sport Recife or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Ceará clean sheet | 29% |
| Sport Recife clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ceará is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Ceará are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ceará vs Sport Recife — FAQ
Who will win Ceará vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model makes Ceará the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Ceará 39%, draw 27%, Sport Recife 34%.
Will both teams score in Ceará vs Sport Recife?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ceará vs Sport Recife?
Expected goals are 1.37 for Ceará and 1.25 for Sport Recife — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ceará vs Sport Recife?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Ceará or draw is 66%.