Celje vs Koper Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Celje vs Koper
Model pick: Celje (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.79 – 1.23
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Celje | Koper |
|---|
| League position | #13 (10 pts) | #2 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 0.7 | 1.0 / 0.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 60% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
*Celje shown at home, Koper shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Celje — last 5
WWWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Koper — last 5
DLDWW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Celje (home) | Koper (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-0 in 3 (1.7 / 0.7 goals per game) | 3-1-1 in 5 (1.0 / 0.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 49% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.79 vs 1.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Celje or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Koper or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Celje clean sheet | 29% |
| Koper clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Celje is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Celje are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Celje vs Koper — FAQ
Who will win Celje vs Koper?
Our statistical model makes Celje the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Celje 48%, draw 25%, Koper 28%.
Will both teams score in Celje vs Koper?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Celje vs Koper?
Expected goals are 1.79 for Celje and 1.23 for Koper — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Celje vs Koper?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Celje or draw is 74%.