Celje vs Maribor Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Celje vs Maribor
Model pick: Celje (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.64 – 1.31
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Celje | Maribor |
|---|
| League position | #13 (10 pts) | #6 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 0.7 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 2.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 |
*Celje shown at home, Maribor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Celje — last 5
DWDDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Maribor — last 5
DDDDW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Celje (home) | Maribor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-0 in 3 (1.7 / 0.7 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.64 vs 1.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Celje or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Maribor or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Celje clean sheet | 27% |
| Maribor clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Celje is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Celje are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Celje vs Maribor — FAQ
Who will win Celje vs Maribor?
Our statistical model makes Celje the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Celje 48%, draw 25%, Maribor 28%.
Will both teams score in Celje vs Maribor?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Celje vs Maribor?
Expected goals are 1.64 for Celje and 1.31 for Maribor — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Celje vs Maribor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Celje or draw is 69%.