Celje vs Olimpija Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Celje vs Olimpija
Model pick: Celje (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.55 – 1.17
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Celje | Olimpija |
|---|
| League position | #13 (10 pts) | #7 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 0.7 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.8 | 0.4 / 1.4 |
*Celje shown at home, Olimpija shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Celje — last 5
DDDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Olimpija — last 5
LLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 38% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Celje (home) | Olimpija (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-0 in 3 (1.7 / 0.7 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 42% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.55 vs 1.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Celje or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Olimpija or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Celje clean sheet | 31% |
| Olimpija clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Celje is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Celje are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Celje vs Olimpija — FAQ
Who will win Celje vs Olimpija?
Our statistical model makes Celje the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Celje 50%, draw 25%, Olimpija 25%.
Will both teams score in Celje vs Olimpija?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Celje vs Olimpija?
Expected goals are 1.55 for Celje and 1.17 for Olimpija — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Celje vs Olimpija?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Celje or draw is 71%.