Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón Prediction & Preview
Segunda (Spain) · Aug 31, 2026 · kickoff 19:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA (SPAIN)
Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón
Model pick: Castellón (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.33 – 1.1
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Celta de Vigo II | Castellón |
|---|
| League position | #3 (4 pts) | #7 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 4.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
*Celta de Vigo II shown at home, Castellón shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Celta de Vigo II — last 5
WWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Castellón — last 5
LWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Celta de Vigo II (home) | Castellón (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (4.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Gorka Carrera (13) | – |
Segunda (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.29
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Segunda (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.33 vs 1.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Celta de Vigo II or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Castellón or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Celta de Vigo II clean sheet | 33% |
| Castellón clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Castellón is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Castellón edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón — FAQ
Who will win Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón?
Our statistical model makes Castellón the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Celta de Vigo II 35%, draw 24%, Castellón 41%.
Will both teams score in Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón?
Expected goals are 2.33 for Celta de Vigo II and 1.1 for Castellón — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Celta de Vigo II or draw is 83%.