Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Prediction & Preview
LaLiga · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 19:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LALIGA
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna
Model pick: Celta Vigo (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.54 – 0.99
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Celta Vigo | Osasuna |
|---|
| League position | #16 (13 pts) | #19 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.2 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 75% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
*Celta Vigo shown at home, Osasuna shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Celta Vigo — last 5
DDDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Osasuna — last 5
WWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Celta Vigo (home) | Osasuna (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-1 in 4 (2.0 / 1.2 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 38% |
| Top scorer | Williot Swedberg (5) | – |
LaLiga — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these LaLiga averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.54 vs 0.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Celta Vigo or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Osasuna or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Celta Vigo clean sheet | 37% |
| Osasuna clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Celta Vigo is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Celta Vigo are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Celta Vigo vs Osasuna — FAQ
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model makes Celta Vigo the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Celta Vigo 47%, draw 28%, Osasuna 25%.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Expected goals are 1.54 for Celta Vigo and 0.99 for Osasuna — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for Celta Vigo or draw is 76%.