Cerro Largo vs Juventud Prediction & Preview
Primera (Uruguay) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 22:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA (URUGUAY)
Cerro Largo vs Juventud
Model pick: Cerro Largo (35%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.06 – 0.95
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cerro Largo | Juventud |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Cerro Largo shown at home, Juventud shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cerro Largo — last 5
WWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Juventud — last 5
DDLWD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cerro Largo (home) | Juventud (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 44% |
Primera (Uruguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.48
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera (Uruguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.06 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Cerro Largo or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Juventud or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Cerro Largo clean sheet | 39% |
| Juventud clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cerro Largo is the model's most likely outcome at
35%. Cerro Largo are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cerro Largo vs Juventud — FAQ
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Juventud?
Our statistical model makes Cerro Largo the most likely result at 35%. Full probabilities: Cerro Largo 35%, draw 31%, Juventud 34%.
Will both teams score in Cerro Largo vs Juventud?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cerro Largo vs Juventud?
Expected goals are 1.06 for Cerro Largo and 0.95 for Juventud — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cerro Largo vs Juventud?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Cerro Largo or draw is 68%.