Cerro Porteño vs Sportivo San Lorenzo Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Paraguay) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PARAGUAY)
Cerro Porteño vs Sportivo San Lorenzo
Model pick: Cerro Porteño (72%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.14 – 0.45
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cerro Porteño | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
|---|
| League position | #1 (197 pts) | #12 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 0.2 / 1.4 |
*Cerro Porteño shown at home, Sportivo San Lorenzo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cerro Porteño — last 5
WLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 45% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Sportivo San Lorenzo — last 5
DDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cerro Porteño (home) | Sportivo San Lorenzo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 45% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 56% |
| Top scorer | Pablo Vegetti (3) | – |
Primera Division (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.14 vs 0.45):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Cerro Porteño or draw (1X) | 94% |
| Double chance — Sportivo San Lorenzo or draw (X2) | 23% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Cerro Porteño clean sheet | 64% |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cerro Porteño is the model's most likely outcome at
72%. Cerro Porteño are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cerro Porteño vs Sportivo San Lorenzo — FAQ
Who will win Cerro Porteño vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
Our statistical model makes Cerro Porteño the most likely result at 72%. Full probabilities: Cerro Porteño 72%, draw 20%, Sportivo San Lorenzo 9%.
Will both teams score in Cerro Porteño vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cerro Porteño vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
Expected goals are 2.14 for Cerro Porteño and 0.45 for Sportivo San Lorenzo — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cerro Porteño vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (17%). Double chance for Cerro Porteño or draw is 94%.