Cerro vs Albion Prediction & Preview
Primera (Uruguay) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA (URUGUAY)
Cerro vs Albion
Model pick: Albion (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.19 – 0.74
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cerro | Albion |
|---|
| League position | #15 (22 pts) | #8 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
*Cerro shown at home, Albion shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cerro — last 5
DLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Albion — last 5
LDLDL
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cerro (home) | Albion (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 35% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 35% |
Primera (Uruguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera (Uruguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.19 vs 0.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Cerro or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Albion or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Cerro clean sheet | 48% |
| Albion clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Albion is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Despite playing away, Albion edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Cerro vs Albion — FAQ
Who will win Cerro vs Albion?
Our statistical model makes Albion the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Cerro 33%, draw 31%, Albion 36%.
Will both teams score in Cerro vs Albion?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cerro vs Albion?
Expected goals are 1.19 for Cerro and 0.74 for Albion — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cerro vs Albion?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Cerro or draw is 77%.