Cesena vs Mantova Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Italy) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (ITALY)
Cesena vs Mantova
Model pick: Cesena (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.55 – 1.19
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cesena | Mantova |
|---|
| League position | #4 (4 pts) | #2 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 0.8 |
*Cesena shown at home, Mantova shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cesena — last 5
WDLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Mantova — last 5
WLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cesena (home) | Mantova (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 45% |
Serie B (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.45
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 32%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Serie B (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.55 vs 1.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Cesena or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Mantova or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Cesena clean sheet | 30% |
| Mantova clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cesena is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Cesena are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Cesena vs Mantova — FAQ
Who will win Cesena vs Mantova?
Our statistical model makes Cesena the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Cesena 44%, draw 26%, Mantova 30%.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Mantova?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Cesena vs Mantova?
Expected goals are 1.55 for Cesena and 1.19 for Mantova — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cesena vs Mantova?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Cesena or draw is 71%.