Ceuta vs Celta de Vigo II Prediction & Preview
Segunda (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA (SPAIN)
Ceuta vs Celta de Vigo II
Model pick: Celta de Vigo II (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 2.17
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ceuta | Celta de Vigo II |
|---|
| League position | #22 (0 pts) | #10 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.4 | 2.0 / 0.6 |
*Ceuta shown at home, Celta de Vigo II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ceuta — last 5
WWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Celta de Vigo II — last 5
WWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ceuta (home) | Celta de Vigo II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 45% |
| Top scorer | – | Gorka Carrera (13) |
Segunda (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.29
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Segunda (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 2.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — Ceuta or draw (1X) | 39% |
| Double chance — Celta de Vigo II or draw (X2) | 81% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Ceuta clean sheet | 11% |
| Celta de Vigo II clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Celta de Vigo II is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Despite playing away, Celta de Vigo II edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ceuta vs Celta de Vigo II — FAQ
Who will win Ceuta vs Celta de Vigo II?
Our statistical model makes Celta de Vigo II the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Ceuta 21%, draw 22%, Celta de Vigo II 57%.
Will both teams score in Ceuta vs Celta de Vigo II?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ceuta vs Celta de Vigo II?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Ceuta and 2.17 for Celta de Vigo II — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ceuta vs Celta de Vigo II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (10%). Double chance for Ceuta or draw is 39%.