Ceuta vs Las Palmas Prediction & Preview
Segunda (Spain) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA (SPAIN)
Ceuta vs Las Palmas
Model pick: Las Palmas (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.1 – 1.4
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ceuta | Las Palmas |
|---|
| League position | #22 (0 pts) | #5 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
*Ceuta shown at home, Las Palmas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ceuta — last 5
LLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Las Palmas — last 5
LWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ceuta (home) | Las Palmas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 41% |
Segunda (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.29
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Segunda (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.1 vs 1.4):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Ceuta or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Las Palmas or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Ceuta clean sheet | 25% |
| Las Palmas clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Las Palmas is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Las Palmas edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ceuta vs Las Palmas — FAQ
Who will win Ceuta vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model makes Las Palmas the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Ceuta 27%, draw 28%, Las Palmas 44%.
Will both teams score in Ceuta vs Las Palmas?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ceuta vs Las Palmas?
Expected goals are 1.1 for Ceuta and 1.4 for Las Palmas — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ceuta vs Las Palmas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Ceuta or draw is 56%.