CF Vilanova vs L'Hospitalet Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
CF Vilanova vs L'Hospitalet
Model pick: CF Vilanova (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.06
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CF Vilanova | L'Hospitalet |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*CF Vilanova shown at home, L'Hospitalet shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CF Vilanova — last 5
WLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
L'Hospitalet — last 5
LDLWD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CF Vilanova (home) | L'Hospitalet (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 1.06):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — CF Vilanova or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — L'Hospitalet or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| CF Vilanova clean sheet | 35% |
| L'Hospitalet clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CF Vilanova is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. CF Vilanova are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CF Vilanova vs L'Hospitalet — FAQ
Who will win CF Vilanova vs L'Hospitalet?
Our statistical model makes CF Vilanova the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: CF Vilanova 36%, draw 30%, L'Hospitalet 34%.
Will both teams score in CF Vilanova vs L'Hospitalet?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in CF Vilanova vs L'Hospitalet?
Expected goals are 1.11 for CF Vilanova and 1.06 for L'Hospitalet — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CF Vilanova vs L'Hospitalet?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for CF Vilanova or draw is 66%.