CFR Cluj vs FCV Farul Constanţa Prediction & Preview
Liga I (Romania) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA I (ROMANIA)
CFR Cluj vs FCV Farul Constanţa
Model pick: CFR Cluj (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.95 – 0.95
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CFR Cluj | FCV Farul Constanţa |
|---|
| League position | #11 (9 pts) | #10 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 0.0 | 1.2 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.4 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*CFR Cluj shown at home, FCV Farul Constanţa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CFR Cluj — last 5
LLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
FCV Farul Constanţa — last 5
DWDLD
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CFR Cluj (home) | FCV Farul Constanţa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (3.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-3-1 in 4 (1.2 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 38% |
| Top scorer | Jovo Lukic (18) | Alexandru Isfan (10) |
Liga I (Romania) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.39
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Liga I (Romania) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.95 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — CFR Cluj or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — FCV Farul Constanţa or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| CFR Cluj clean sheet | 39% |
| FCV Farul Constanţa clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CFR Cluj is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. CFR Cluj are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CFR Cluj vs FCV Farul Constanţa — FAQ
Who will win CFR Cluj vs FCV Farul Constanţa?
Our statistical model makes CFR Cluj the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: CFR Cluj 47%, draw 27%, FCV Farul Constanţa 26%.
Will both teams score in CFR Cluj vs FCV Farul Constanţa?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in CFR Cluj vs FCV Farul Constanţa?
Expected goals are 1.95 for CFR Cluj and 0.95 for FCV Farul Constanţa — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CFR Cluj vs FCV Farul Constanţa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (11%). Double chance for CFR Cluj or draw is 82%.