Cham vs Aschaffenburg Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Cham vs Aschaffenburg
Model pick: Draw (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.05 – 0.61
Total goals: 0.7
Over 2.5: 12%
Both teams score: 15%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cham | Aschaffenburg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.4 | 2.2 / 1.6 |
*Cham shown at home, Aschaffenburg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cham — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Aschaffenburg — last 5
DDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cham (home) | Aschaffenburg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 100% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.12
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 31%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.05 vs 0.61):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (52%) |
| Double chance — Cham or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Aschaffenburg or draw (X2) | 97% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 47% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 0% / 100% |
| Cham clean sheet | 54% |
| Aschaffenburg clean sheet | 95% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (88% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cham vs Aschaffenburg — FAQ
Who will win Cham vs Aschaffenburg?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Cham 4%, draw 52%, Aschaffenburg 44%.
Will both teams score in Cham vs Aschaffenburg?
The model gives a 15% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cham vs Aschaffenburg?
Expected goals are 0.05 for Cham and 0.61 for Aschaffenburg — about 0.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cham vs Aschaffenburg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (52%). Double chance for Cham or draw is 56%.