Cham vs Nordlingen Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Cham vs Nordlingen
Model pick: Cham (63%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.62 – 0.41
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cham | Nordlingen |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
*Cham shown at home, Nordlingen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cham — last 5
WLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Nordlingen — last 5
WDDWL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cham (home) | Nordlingen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.61
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 68%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.62 vs 0.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (21%) |
| Double chance — Cham or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — Nordlingen or draw (X2) | 32% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Cham clean sheet | 66% |
| Nordlingen clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cham is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Cham are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cham vs Nordlingen — FAQ
Who will win Cham vs Nordlingen?
Our statistical model makes Cham the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Cham 63%, draw 26%, Nordlingen 11%.
Will both teams score in Cham vs Nordlingen?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cham vs Nordlingen?
Expected goals are 1.62 for Cham and 0.41 for Nordlingen — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cham vs Nordlingen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (21%). Double chance for Cham or draw is 91%.