Changchun Yatai vs Ningbo Professional Prediction & Preview
League One (China) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE ONE (CHINA)
Changchun Yatai vs Ningbo Professional
Model pick: Changchun Yatai (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.32 – 1.26
Total goals: 3.6
Over 2.5: 62%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Changchun Yatai | Ningbo Professional |
|---|
| League position | #11 (22 pts) | #7 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 44% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
*Changchun Yatai shown at home, Ningbo Professional shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Changchun Yatai — last 5
DLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Ningbo Professional — last 5
LLDLD
On the road: clean sheet 100% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Changchun Yatai (home) | Ningbo Professional (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-4 in 10 (1.8 / 1.8 goals per game) | 4-3-2 in 9 (1.1 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 0% |
League One (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.06
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these League One (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.32 vs 1.26):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Changchun Yatai or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Ningbo Professional or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 48% / 52% |
| Changchun Yatai clean sheet | 28% |
| Ningbo Professional clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Changchun Yatai is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Changchun Yatai are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.6, this shapes as an open game (62% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Changchun Yatai vs Ningbo Professional — FAQ
Who will win Changchun Yatai vs Ningbo Professional?
Our statistical model makes Changchun Yatai the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Changchun Yatai 57%, draw 21%, Ningbo Professional 22%.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Ningbo Professional?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Changchun Yatai vs Ningbo Professional?
Expected goals are 2.32 for Changchun Yatai and 1.26 for Ningbo Professional — about 3.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Changchun Yatai vs Ningbo Professional?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Changchun Yatai or draw is 80%.