Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail Prediction & Preview
K League 3 (South Korea) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 08:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 3 (SOUTH KOREA)
Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail
Model pick: Daejeon Korail (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.12 – 1.13
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Changwon City | Daejeon Korail |
|---|
| League position | #6 (26 pts) | #4 (35 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 30% | 42% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.2 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
*Changwon City shown at home, Daejeon Korail shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Changwon City — last 5
WDLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Daejeon Korail — last 5
LLDLW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Changwon City (home) | Daejeon Korail (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-6-1 in 10 (1.2 / 0.9 goals per game) | 5-5-2 in 12 (1.4 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% |
K League 3 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.42
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these K League 3 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.12 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Changwon City or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Daejeon Korail or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Changwon City clean sheet | 32% |
| Daejeon Korail clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Daejeon Korail is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Despite playing away, Daejeon Korail edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail — FAQ
Who will win Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail?
Our statistical model makes Daejeon Korail the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Changwon City 35%, draw 29%, Daejeon Korail 36%.
Will both teams score in Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail?
Expected goals are 1.12 for Changwon City and 1.13 for Daejeon Korail — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Changwon City or draw is 64%.