Chapecoense vs Bahia Prediction & Preview
BrazilA · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BRAZILA
Chapecoense vs Bahia
Model pick: Bahia (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.95 – 1.37
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chapecoense | Bahia |
|---|
| League position | #20 (10 pts) | #6 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 2.4 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 10% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 2.0 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
*Chapecoense shown at home, Bahia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chapecoense — last 5
LDDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Bahia — last 5
WDDDD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chapecoense (home) | Bahia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-4-5 in 10 (1.3 / 2.4 goals per game) | 4-3-3 in 10 (1.2 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 43% |
| Top scorer | – | Jose Willian (2) |
BrazilA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.38
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these BrazilA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.95 vs 1.37):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Chapecoense or draw (1X) | 53% |
| Double chance — Bahia or draw (X2) | 74% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Chapecoense clean sheet | 25% |
| Bahia clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bahia is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Despite playing away, Bahia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chapecoense vs Bahia — FAQ
Who will win Chapecoense vs Bahia?
Our statistical model makes Bahia the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Chapecoense 28%, draw 28%, Bahia 45%.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Bahia?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Chapecoense vs Bahia?
Expected goals are 0.95 for Chapecoense and 1.37 for Bahia — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chapecoense vs Bahia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Chapecoense or draw is 53%.